Grading MLB’s Biggest Trade Deadline Deals, Including Skubal To Dodgers

We’re grading the deals ahead of Monday’s MLB trade deadline. How do these moves impact the pennant chase and which ones are going to move the needle for the postseason contenders? Let’s get into it: Dodgers: A+Tigers: C+ Who else is involved: The Tigers received three prospects, outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handed pitchers River Ryan and Brady Smith The rich get richer as the two-time defending champions acquired the prize of the deadline. The Dodgers kept all starters in their rotation and each of their two top (and arguably three) star outfield prospects and still managed to land Skubal. The reigning back-to-back Cy Young Award winner joins the reigning back-to-back world champions, whose strong chances of winning a third straight World Series title get even stronger. How could they possibly receive another grade? Their ability to outbid goes beyond their seemingly endless pocketbooks; clearly, it extends to their prospect capital, despite their annual triumphs preventing them from accessing the top picks in the draft. And now, through the help of their thriving farm system, they have added Skubal to an already star-studded rotation that didn’t need the help nearly as much as some of baseball’s other top contenders.They did it because they could. And because their desire to three-peat knows no bounds. Skubal joins Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the reigning World Series MVP and a proven October ace, in a rotation that includes All-Star Justin Wrobleski and by season’s end could also include two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, 2024 All-Star Tyler Glasnow and four-time MVP Shohei Ohtani. Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani are currently sidelined (at least as a pitcher, in Ohtani’s case), but all of them are either nearing a return or expected back before season’s end. Snell said he’s feeling the best he has felt in three years after his elbow procedure and is only expected to need one more rehab outing before returning to action. Ohtani’s knee is keeping him off the mound for now, but he’s still healthy enough to be in the Dodgers’ lineup and is expected to pitch in October. Glasnow is about to start his rehab assignment. All of that doesn’t include Emmet Sheehan or Roki Sasaki, who seems to be figuring things out with a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts. Wrobleski, Sheehan and Sasaki are helping to hold down the fort as the injured stars work their way back. Many assumed it would take at least one of Sheehan or Wrobleski to headline a Skubal package. Somehow, the Dodgers got it done without any of them, with two days left to spare before the deadline. Somehow, no other team offered better. To be clear, it’s not that this is a bad return. Hope, who has 23 homers and 18 steals at Double-A, is a tremendously gifted prospect, arguably one of the top 25 in the sport. Ryan is one of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects, though he’s also about to turn 28, missed last season recovering back from Tommy John surgery, and has barely pitched this year due to lingering hamstring issues. Smith has racked up strikeouts this year between Low-A and High-A. All of them bring upside.But, even for a rental, I expected more. This is Tarik Skubal we’re talking about. Brewers? Rays? Braves? Where you at?The rich get richer. The rest of the baseball world weeps. – Kavner White Sox: C-Mariners: BWho else is involved: The Mariners received right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez, outfielder Nolan Jones and catching prospect Boston SmithThe White Sox need more reliable starting pitching. This…was not the veteran pitcher I expected them to land. Castillo is a three-time All-Star who was an important piece helping end Seattle’s 20-year playoff drought when the Mariners traded for him in 2022. He was productive over his next three seasons with the Mariners, as well, registering a combined 3.50 ERA from 2023-25 while throwing more than 175 innings in each of those seasons. This year…has not gone the same. Castillo, 33, has been a below replacement level player in 2026 with a 5.06 ERA and the lowest strikeout rate of his career. He was making $24.15 million this year and is due the same amount next season. He also has a $25 million vesting option in 2028 if he reaches the 180-inning mark next season. The White Sox are reportedly taking on the full amount. That’s a lot of money for a pitcher whose numbers — both real and underlying — are trending in the wrong direction. Castillo can eat innings, so maybe they have something else up their sleeves to raise the group’s ceiling as it attempts to end a four-year playoff drought. They’ll at least get some relief by moving the contract of Dominguez, who was making $7.5 million this year and is due $10.5 million next year.The Mariners already have five other reliable starters in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and have top prospect Kade Anderson knocking on the door. They did not need Castillo, and they get off his contract. Dominguez helps fill a bullpen need, and Smith immediately becomes one of the more interesting position player prospects in Seattle’s system. The 2025 sixth-round pick is a left-handed-hitting catcher with an OPS over 1.100 at Double-A. This move doesn’t exactly help lift the Mariners in 2026, however, so it’ll be interesting to see how much help they add over the next few days. A right-handed bat certainly wouldn’t hurt. -Kavner Braves: B+Royals: BWho else is involved: Braves also acquire LHP Bailey Falter; Royals received RHP Lucas Braun and LHP Carter HoltonThe Braves are enjoying a bounceback season from Michael Harris II in center field, but right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr has been on the injured list twice with a hamstring injury and Atlanta’s left fielders have produced a .646 OPS this year, the second-worst mark in MLB. In addition, the offense had a .692 OPS against lefties in July, a total that ranked 21st in baseball. Thomas, who has an .800 OPS against lefties and can play both corner spots, is a logical fit in a market short on right-handed bats. At the very least, he can platoon against lefties and has a patient approach, strong arm and speed. Falter, meanwhile, has spent most of the year at Triple-A and can help add depth in a swingman or long relief role. Braun, who was ranked the Braves’ No. 8 prospect by MLB (and a top-20 prospect in the system by most outlets), projects as a back-end starter. He doesn’t miss many bats, but he has been durable and effective at the upper minors. He had a 3.67 ERA in 149.2 innings last year between Double-A and Triple-A and has a 3.53 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 94.1 innings between the two stops this year. Holton was the Braves’ second round pick in 2024 and has a 5.08 ERA at low-A. It would’ve been nice to get a little more upside when there are so few right-handed hitters available, but it’s an acceptable return for a veteran rental. – Kavner Pirates: C+Yankees: B-Who else is involved: The Yankees received two prospects, C Omar Alfonzo and OF Luis CruzPittsburgh needs relief arms arguably as much or more than any other contender, so this one’s hard to grade until we know how much more bullpen help it acquires over the next few days. As it stands, the Pirates are buying low, hoping they can extract the upside out of Doval that the Yankees couldn’t after New York traded for the hard-throwing Dominican right-hander at last year’s deadline. Doval was a below replacement level arm in the second half for the Yankees last year and is again through the first half this season, registering a 4.63 ERA during his time in the Bronx. Three years ago, Doval looked like one of the game’s most promising relievers. An All-Star at 25 years old with the Giants in 2023, he featured a cutter that averaged close to 100 mph and recorded an NL-best 39 saves. But he was unable to consistently replicate that form or maintain his control in the ensuing years and was recently relegated to lower leverage duties with the Yankees. He hasn’t walked as many batters this year, he still throws hard, he keeps the ball on the ground, and his expected ERA (3.61) is about a full run better than his actual ERA (4.54), but his strikeout rate continues to plummet, and he is allowing the highest hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of his career. There are clear tools here, though, so the “+” on the Pirates’ grade is in part because Doval is still under team control for another season. But the fact that the Yankees — who are also in need of bullpen help — were willing to just move on after Doval’s disappointing tenure is telling.That said, it wasn’t particularly surprising. Doval clearly wasn’t figuring it out with the Yankees, who at least turned him into a prospect at a position of need in Alfonzo, a left-handed-hitting catcher who was a top-20 Pirates prospect according to MLB’s rankings and has a .757 OPS at Double-A. Cruz is a dart throw, but the 18-year-old had an .856 OPS for the Pirates’ Dominican Summer League team. I’d expect the Yankees to look for another high-leverage arm, in addition to their offensive needs. — Kavner

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